Marlowe V2

{
  "_meta": {
    "schema_version": "1.2.0",
    "ingested_at": "2026-05-11",
    "source_url": "https://hydra.intersectmbo.org",
    "proposal_id": "69fc8a71b05ff80adc7d5c4f",
    "title": "Marlowe V2",
    "proposer": "Simon Thompson",
    "administrator": "Intersect",
    "estimated_duration_months": 12,
    "requested_budget_ada": 1802500,
    "requested_budget_usd": 450625,
    "ada_usd_rate_proposer": 0.25
  },
  "identity": {
    "doxxed": true,
    "doxxed_notes": "Simon Thompson (one of the original Marlowe designers) and Tomasz Rybarczyk (core maintainer, former IOG Marlowe team member) are named as directors of the Marlowe Language Community Interest Company. Both are publicly known figures in the Cardano/Marlowe history. Applying as company.",
    "doxxed_set_by": "ai"
  },
  "metadata": {
    "open_source": "yes",
    "open_source_notes": "Marlowe has historically been open-source (Marlowe-lang GitHub organization). No specific license stated for V2 deliverables in this proposal but continuation of an open-source project.",
    "open_source_set_by": "ai",
    "has_prior_delivery": true,
    "has_prior_delivery_notes": "Marlowe has been developed under IOG since the Goguen era and went live on mainnet in 2023. Catalyst Fund proposal 1300131 (Marlowe 2025: Oracle Protocol, Design and Implementation) cited as prior funding. The original Marlowe project was an extensive IOG investment over multiple years.",
    "has_prior_delivery_set_by": "ai",
    "admin_model": "intersect",
    "admin_model_set_by": "ai",
    "duplicate_of_existing_solution": {
      "value": "no",
      "confidence": "high",
      "set_by": "ai",
      "notes": "Marlowe V2 is a continuation of the existing Marlowe DSL rather than a competing solution. No equivalent financial-contract DSL exists on Cardano. Aiken/Plutus serve a different (general-purpose smart contract) role."
    }
  },
  "ask": {
    "usd_peg_vs_market": "neutral",
    "usd_peg_vs_market_notes": "0.25 ADA/USD market rate.",
    "usd_peg_vs_market_set_by": "ai",
    "milestone_payments_disclosed": true,
    "milestone_payments_disclosed_set_by": "ai",
    "milestone_schedule_disclosed": "amounts_only",
    "milestone_schedule_disclosed_notes": "Two work packages with line-item budgets. WP1 (1.2M ADA — V2.0 implementation across language/runtime and tooling) and WP2 (550K ADA — V2.x design and L2 feasibility). Each WP has phased deliverables described but no per-milestone calendar/amount schedule.",
    "milestone_schedule_disclosed_set_by": "ai"
  },
  "treasury_return": {
    "has_return_clause": false,
    "has_return_clause_set_by": "ai",
    "treasury_favourability": "weak",
    "treasury_favourability_notes": "Proposal answers 'No' to treasury return. No unused-funds clause, no revenue share, no FX contingency mechanism. Open-source delivery as the public-good return.",
    "treasury_favourability_set_by": "ai"
  },
  "relationships": {
    "competes_with": [],
    "competes_with_set_by": "ai"
  },
  "ecosystem_demand": {
    "evidence_level": "none",
    "evidence_level_confidence": "high",
    "evidence_level_set_by": "ai",
    "active_users_known": false,
    "active_users_examples": [],
    "developer_demand_signals": [
      "Recent community design process (early 2026) with developers and users led to V2 design document",
      "Tomasz Rybarczyk active in cardano-lightning project (related but separate)"
    ],
    "adoption_risk_notes": "This is the textbook 'no-demand' scenario from the schema worked examples. The proposal text itself contains a direct acknowledgment of demand failure: 'In retrospect, the vision of non-technical financial professionals writing on-chain contracts was ahead of where both Cardano adoption and institutional blockchain engagement actually were at the time.' Marlowe has been live on Cardano mainnet since 2023 — three years of opportunity for production adoption has passed without significant deployed user base materializing. The proposal does not name any production Marlowe contracts currently deployed, any committed institutional users for V2, or any Cardano-native organization currently building on Marlowe and waiting for V2 features. Demand is asserted by potential ('with the rise of interest in DeFi on Cardano, now is the time') rather than evidenced by named users. The proposer's framing is honest about this gap. The WP2 'Marlowe L2 state channel' feasibility study adds even more speculative scope on top of an already-demand-light core."
  },
  "incumbents": {
    "has_existing_solution": "no",
    "has_existing_solution_confidence": "high",
    "has_existing_solution_set_by": "ai",
    "existing_solutions": [
      {
        "name": "Marlowe V1 (existing)",
        "url": "https://github.com/marlowe-lang",
        "status": "shipped",
        "overlap": "substantial",
        "notes": "Marlowe V1 is the existing version this proposal upgrades. Has been live on Cardano mainnet since 2023 but proposer's own framing acknowledges limited production adoption."
      },
      {
        "name": "Aiken / Plutus",
        "status": "shipped",
        "overlap": "partial",
        "notes": "General-purpose Cardano smart contract languages. Different abstraction level — developer-oriented rather than financial-DSL-oriented — so not direct competition but covers the broader smart contract space where DeFi is actually being built today."
      }
    ],
    "differentiation_claim": "Domain-specific language for financial contracts (escrows, swaps, bonds, payment schedules) accessible to financial professionals/lawyers/businesses. V2 simplifies language, adds expressivity (WhenAll, EntryDeposit, hashing), and improves scalability via state compression. WP2 explores Marlowe L2 state channel as Cardano DeFi innovation.",
    "differentiation_credibility": "medium",
    "differentiation_credibility_notes": "The technical work is competent and the team (original Marlowe designer + core maintainer) has the credibility to deliver it. The fundamental question is not whether they can deliver Marlowe V2 — they can — but whether the audience the original Marlowe was built for actually exists on Cardano in 2026. The proposal acknowledges this question honestly but does not resolve it with named users or institutional commitments. The L2 state channel work is more speculative still."
  },
  "risk_flags": {
    "aggressive_peg": false,
    "self_administered_no_oversight": false,
    "incumbent_already_delivering": false,
    "no_evidence_of_demand": true,
    "competes_with_in_batch": false,
    "concentration_risk": false
  },
  "id": "hydra-marlowe-v2",
  "source": {
    "hydra_id": "69fc8a71b05ff80adc7d5c4f",
    "channels": [
      "hydra"
    ]
  }
}